Terminal orders remain stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate of copper foil enterprises [SMM Analysis]

SMM June 6 News:

According to SMM, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises in May 2025 was 72.16%, up 0.65 percentage points MoM and down 0.11 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 75.86%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 52.38%, and that of small enterprises was 66.11%. Specifically, in different fields, the operating rate of electronic circuit copper foil was 75.61%, down 0.87 percentage points MoM and 6.02 percentage points YoY, while the operating rate of lithium battery copper foil was 70.39%, up 1.44 percentage points MoM and 3.21 percentage points YoY. It is expected that the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry will continue to climb slightly to 71.70% in June 2025.

Operating rate of copper foil enterprises in May 2025: 72.16%

In May 2025, terminal orders showed stable growth, and the price of copper foil processing fees remained stable. According to the Q1 2025 financial reports, publicly listed copper foil firms have turned from losses to profits or significantly narrowed their losses. Therefore, some large enterprises continued to release capacity, leading to a slight overall increase in the operating rate of the copper foil industry. Specifically, in terms of lithium battery copper foil, orders from the power sector grew steadily, and orders from the ESS sector were boosted by the concentrated grid connection during the "531" period. For electronic circuit copper foil, the consumer sector was in its seasonal peak, and there were still rush-to-export activities amid uncertainty over tariff decisions. Additionally, the rise in the copper price center in May also drove some stockpiling demand.

Raw material and finished product inventories in the copper foil industry increased slightly in May

In May, the finished product inventory/output ratio of the copper foil industry rose 0.68 percentage points MoM to 17.27%, and the raw material inventory/output ratio rose 0.06 percentage points MoM to 17.00%. In May, downstream orders in the copper foil industry remained stable overall, and new orders in June are expected to remain stable. The capacity utilisation rate of copper foil enterprises increased, and raw material and finished product inventories increased slightly.

Forecast for the operating rate of the copper foil industry in June 2025: A slight increase to 72.70%

SMM forecasts that in June 2025, the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises will be 72.70%, up 0.54 percentage points MoM and 0.67 percentage points YoY. It is expected that the operating rate of lithium battery copper foil in June will be 70.93%, up 0.54 percentage points MoM and 3.76 percentage points YoY. The operating rate of electronic circuit copper foil in June is expected to be 76.16%, up 0.55 percentage points MoM and down 4.79 percentage points YoY.

SMM expects that the operating rate of copper foil enterprises will continue to rise slightly in June, primarily due to the continuous release of capacity by some copper foil enterprises amid the relatively stable overall performance of terminal orders in Q2. In terms of specific segments, for lithium battery copper foil, orders from the power sector are expected to remain stable. In the ESS sector, with the grid connection deadline concluded and the impact of the policy to cancel "mandatory energy storage allocation," orders may decline. For electronic circuit copper foil, as the peak consumption season gradually transitions to the off-season, there is a slight trend of weakening demand. However, overall, there is no significant expectation of a decline in demand.